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Henry-Aurélien NATTER, MRICS, Head of Research
While uncertainty dominated during the first months of the year 2024, it would seem that the worst time for global growth has passed.Indeed, the possibility of a US recession following the monetary tightening seems to be ruled out due to the resilience of the economy. Similarly, the latest figures for Chinese growth have been better than initially anticipated, although they remain low compared to recent years. Thus, global growth is forecast at +2.4% for 2024, before a more dynamic recovery in 2025 (+2.8%).
The outlook for 2024–2025 in the eurozone suggests the prospect of a widespread and gradual recovery in growth (+0.6% and +1.8%).The breakthrough is expected to occur in the second half of 2024 due to positive cyclical factors, including continued decline in inflation, monetary policy easing and an improvement in order books. By major countries, the GDP of Spain is expected to grow by +2.1% in 2024 and +1.7% in 2025, Belgium (+1.2% and +1.4%), the Netherlands (+1.0% and +2.0%), Italy (+0.7% and +1.1%), France (+0.5% and +2.0%) and Germany (0.0% and +1.4%).
The ECB’s strategy to tighten its monetary policy has achieved its objective with inflation gradually receding from +2.9% in December 2023 to +2.4% at the end of March 2024. At its meeting in April 2024, the ECB officially opened the door to a potential first reduction in its key interest rates in June 2024. However, this is a probability, not a certainty, as the Board will have a lot more data at that time to make a decision regarding a change in its key interest rate policy. Conditionality also remains strong, especially if there are new setbacks regarding inflation in the coming months.
After experiencing a peak in 2023, the 10-year sovereign rates of the various European economies have eased. However, in the event of a more pronounced than expected deterioration in the public finances of some European countries, an increase in financing costs cannot be ruled out.
Sources of data: Praemia REIM Research & Strategy, Immostat, CBRE, Savills, BNP PRE, JLL, Knight Frank, MSCI, Oxford Economics, Eurostat, OCDE, FMI, Stabel, NSI, CZSO, DST, Destatis, Stat, CSO, Statistics, INE, INSEE, DZS, ISTAT, CSB, Statistics Lithuania, Statec, KSH, CBS, Statistik Austria, Stat Poland, INE, INSSE, Statistics Finland, SCB, SSB, BFS, ONS, STR, Operators
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